According to a recent study published in Lancet, 70% of India’s urban population is classified as obese or overweight, placing the country amid an obesity crisis. The global obesity epidemic has also reached alarming levels, with over 1 billion adults worldwide classified as obese. This number is expected to rise to 1.9 billion by 2035, representing 25% of the global population.
Obesity is defined as having a Body Mass Index (BMI) equal to or greater than 25 kg/m² but less than 30 kg/m², which is the standard clinical threshold for obesity.
The economic and health impacts of obesity are staggering, with obesity-related costs projected to reach $4 trillion by 2035, accounting for 2.9% of global GDP.
In response, the pharmaceutical industry has developed innovative anti-obesity medications (AOMs), particularly GLP-1 receptor agonists like Wegovy and Zepbound, which have revolutionized the obesity treatment market, as per IQVIA Thought Leadership, World Obesity Federation, World Obesity Atlas 2023.
Obesity is a chronic disease with significant health implications, including increased risks of cardiovascular disease, type-2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and even Alzheimer’s. Traditional public health measures, such as promoting healthy diets and exercise, have proven insufficient to curb the rising tide of obesity.
GLP-1 receptor agonists, a class of drugs, have transformed the obesity treatment landscape. These medications, including semaglutide (Wegovy) and tirzepatide (Zepbound), have demonstrated remarkable efficacy, achieving weight loss of 10-15% in clinical trials. Beyond weight reduction, they have shown results in reducing the risk of cardiovascular events, slowing the progression of pre-diabetes to diabetes, and improving outcomes in conditions like heart failure and chronic kidney disease, as per a NIH report.
According to the World Economic Forum, the introduction of GLP-1 drugs has spurred unprecedented growth in the obesity treatment market. In 2023, global spending on obesity medications surged to nearly $24 billion—a sevenfold increase over three years.
The market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 24-27% through 2028, potentially reaching $131 billion by that year. Despite this growth, access to these life-changing medications remains limited, even in high-income countries (HICs). In low and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 79% of the global obese population is expected to reside by 2035, access is even more restricted due to high costs and limited healthcare infrastructure.
Broader insurance coverage, particularly in HICs, could mitigate seasonal fluctuations by making GLP-1 drugs more accessible year-round. Initiatives like the UK’s NHS agreement with Eli Lilly to roll out tirzepatide for high-risk patients demonstrate the potential for public health systems to play a role.
In LMICs, where out-of-pocket payments are the norm, reducing the cost of GLP-1 drugs through patent expirations (e.g., semaglutide in 2026) or the development of oral formulations could improve access. Conducting studies on the socio-economic benefits of GLP-1 drugs, such as reduced healthcare costs and improved productivity, could strengthen the case for their inclusion in national insurance schemes, the report suggests.
The perception of GLP-1 drugs as quick fixes for weight loss could lead to misuse, particularly among individuals who do not meet the clinical criteria for obesity. This could fuel a dangerous market for falsified treatments. GLP-1 drugs should complement, not replace, lifestyle interventions like diet and exercise.
Public health campaigns must emphasize the importance of holistic approaches to weight management. Ensuring equitable access to GLP-1 drugs, particularly in LMICs, remains a challenge. Strategies must be developed to reach underserved populations.
However, a curious trend has emerged: obesity drug sales surge in January and fade by summer. This seasonal pattern, reminiscent of gym memberships, offers a fascinating lens through which to examine consumer behaviour, pharmaceutical market dynamics, and the broader challenges of addressing obesity as a chronic disease.
One of the most intriguing aspects of the obesity drug market is its seasonal fluctuation. Data analysed by analysts at Evercore ISI reveals a consistent pattern- demand for GLP-1 drugs peaks in the first half of the year, particularly in January, and declines in the second half.
While GLP-1 drugs represent a ground-breaking advancement in obesity treatment, their potential can only be fully realized through broader insurance coverage, reduced costs, and integration with lifestyle interventions. By addressing these challenges, healthcare systems worldwide can harness the power of AOMs (Anti Obesity Medications) to combat the obesity epidemic and its associated diseases, ultimately improving the health and well-being of millions.
