“If you don’t make your product in America, which is your prerogative, you will pay a tariff,” said the US President Donald Trump. The twin themes of illegal immigration and tariffs are expected to dominate the conversation between New Delhi and Washington in the Trump 2.0 Administration.
Trade experts are of the view that India should not be making unilateral offers to avoid being seen as confrontational. India had a merchandise trade surplus of over $35.3 bn with the U.S. in FY 2024. Government functionaries see ‘Positives’ in America first trade Policy Memorandum issued by Trump. The document, Trade agreements, which India could take advantage of.
Newly appointed U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio “emphasised the Trump administration’s desire to work with India to advance economic ties and address concerns related to irregular migration.”
The Stargate AI Project is an ambitious initiative announced by Trump. Its aim is to invest half a trillion dollars over the next four years to build World-Class AI infrastructure in the United States. The project is backed by major tech companies including Softbank, OpenAI, Oracle and MGX (a Canadian mining company with a focus on lithium, magnesium, and silicon projects) with Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son serving as the Chairman.
Firstly, let’s look into the ground reality of America’s far-sightedness. Project Stargate is good news for several major tech companies. The timing is particularly good for Oracle. This AI infrastructure venture unveiled at the White House named Oracle, with OpenAI and softbank, as key partner and equity investor.
The news also sparked strong gains for Chip makers Nvidia and Arm, along with Microsoft. All three were named “initial technology partners” for the project, along with Oracle. Investors don’t seem worried. Several analysts have said that the Stargate Project solidifies Oracle’s position in the AI race.
President Trump stood alongside prominent tech executives at the White House, to unveil what he called a “Tremendous” and “monumental” $500 billion Artificial Intelligence infrastructure project. Hours later, Elon Musk publicly questioned whether the Joint Venture would ever get off the ground.
Musk went on a rant on X (formerly Twitter) discrediting the two companies behind the project stating they don’t have enough capital to follow through on their pledges. The company’s Musk was referring to was specifically Sam Altman’s open AI and Database Cloud Storage ‘Oracle’.
Tesla Chief executive mocked the estimated numbers to be invested in the Stargate Project, somewhat calling it a deluded aim at achieving the goal by corporations involved while feuding with Ex-Business Associate Sam Altman, which was an outburst of long-standing tension between them. They worked together on OpenAI’s ChatGpt in its initial years.
Interestingly, the Corporates behind Stargate didn’t disclose how much cash each partner would contribute, or where all the funds would come from, as Stargate plans to bring on additional equity investors, as per media reports.
Furthermore, the main partners have constraints on their cash. OpenAI has raised large sums including nearly $7 Billion in a funding round last October – but lost money. Oracle has about $ 11 billion in cash and Marketable Securities but more in debt. Softbank has roughly $30 billion of cash on hand as per the WSJ.
Microsoft Chief Satya Nadella threw shades at Elon over his doubts abouts Stargate funding, when asked about his opinion in an interview.
After deregulation of the 100’s of norm to stabilize the Argentine economy, President Javier Milei has restored his popularity to some extent. Milei’s accomplishments have turned him into a star among the ascendant global right – from President Trump to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, but now known as “El Loco” – The Madman – Melei has become especially close with Elon Musk during a more then year-long bromance as the two men laud each other’s achievements and attack progressive ideals.
Javier Milei’s policy of chainsawing the Red tape by heavily cutting down Public Spending, resonates with the aspirations of the Trump Administration this season. Milei has pledged that his administration which is shedding the scales of Peronist Fundamentals stands ready to take the role of Advisor on the sidelines to Trump and Musk administration on cutting Red Tape in the U.S. but whether it will be a wise move is questionable.
The Cheap Canadian Oil America craves becoming a key bargain chip in President Trump’s threatened Trade War. The country’s energy markets have grown increasingly intertwined in recent decades. But Trump has already jolted that relationship, promising 25% Tariffs on all imports from Canada and directing federal agencies to reevaluate trade Policies with countries including America’s most important foreign oil supplier.
While speaking at the Oval Office, Trump talked about imposing tariffs presumably by Feb 1 which he said with ambiguity, reported FT. Critics of Tariffs, including major U.S. fossil-fuel groups, argue that a trade war impacting Canadian crude oil would undermine the president’s goal of achieving “Energy Dominance”. This is because tariffs could disrupt the supply of Canadian crude, which is essential for the U.S. refineries.
The interconnectedness of the U.S. and Canadian energy markets means that any disruption could lead to higher costs and supply issues. Gasoline prices have been a significant factor in driving inflation. In December, gasoline prices contributed to the overall rise in inflation. The 9.2% increase in benchmark global futures indicates that gasoline prices are likely to continue rising in the near future. This means that consumers can expect moderate hikes at the pump, which will further impact inflation.
Donald Trump’s criticism of China on the campaign trail and after his election had raised eyebrows that Day 1 of his second Presidency term would reignite a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. As Trump took office this week, he deferred the threat of tariffs and expressed a willingness to talk business with China’s leader, postponing what appeared to be a looming clash – while repeating threats to take action against Beijing in matters of trade, technology and security.
He signed off on giving TikTok more time to figure out how to keep operating in the U.S., after the Chinese-owned app briefly went dark under threat of a permanent ban. Trump also said he might visit China this year.
The mania over meme coins started with Shiba Inu. Dogecoin is the original meme coin that set the internet blaze. Its popularity exploded after Elon Musk, the Tesla Chief and Trump ally, obsessively tweeted about it. Recently this market saw a huge spike in popularity of meme tokens and coins. Just days ahead of his return to White House, President Trump and his wife, Melania, launched a pair of meme coins that have skyrocketed in value and earned them billions of dollars, at least on paper. $TRUMP and $MELANIA tokens are a type of cryptocurrency that doesn’t serve any economic purpose and whose value is based largely on the popularity of internet memes.
More importantly, the Ethical Concerns related to these tokens and Coins are the “talk of the town”. Meme coins are known for their extreme volatility. The value of these coins can fluctuate wildly based on social media hype and public sentiment. This volatility can lead to significant financial gains or losses for investors. The creation and promotion of meme coins by a sitting president raises an ethical predicament.
The slogan “Drill, baby, drill” was coined in 2008 by Michael Steele, a Republican politician and the First African-American lieutenant governor of Maryland, Chicago. He famously declared at the Republican National Convention, “Let’s reduce our dependence on foreign sources of oil and promote oil and gas production at home.
The Same phrase is emblematic of Trump’s vision to expand domestic oil and gas production, which was his Rallying Cry at his inaugural address as the 47th President of the United States. He had also hinted at the possibility of declaring a “National Energy Emergency”, a unique measure that could carry significant consequences for the country’s energy policy.
Trump also said that he would withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and end the country’s international climate funding. Trump had also withdrawn the U.S. from the Paris deal in his 2017-2021 White House Term.
Trump issued an executive order on January 20, 2025, to withdraw the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO). This marks the second attempt to leave the organization, following a similar move during his first term, which was later reversed by President Biden.
Trump and his allies used the World Economic Forum to offer the global elite a warning. He intends to follow through on his “America First” campaign promises, spurning allies in the process if necessary. He expressed his frustration at tariffs the E.U. places on the U.S. farm products and cars.
Trump sought to take a firm grip on global affairs, calling on the Saudi Arabia – led organization of the Petroleum exporting countries to lower the price of oil. He suggested the move could put pressure on Russia to call off its invasion of Ukraine, given much of the Kremlin’s revenue comes from energy sales, in the virtual meet of WEF 2025.
Many money managers already had good feelings about the U.S. economy heading into 2025. The Domestic labor market has been humming Long, with the latest job report. Showing that the unemployment rate ended the year at 4% a historically low figure. And inflation has been steadily falling.
